The itu: power deficit this year or to 40 million kw
The itu: power deficit this year or to 40 million kw
Recently, the China electricity council (
Hereinafter referred to as the itu)
Published in 2012 by the 2011 national electricity supply and demand situation and analysis predict '(
Hereinafter referred to as the 'forecast')
, and points out that the 2012 economic and power growth will fall, be installed especially thermal power installed slow growth, coal supply, water and electricity and water influence factors such as uncertainty, expect the 2012 biggest electricity shortfall of 30 million ~ 40 million kw, electricity supply and demand is still tight as a whole.
< P> this, several analysts told reporters, the 'daily economic news' have been tight power supply situation in our country in recent years, is not only influenced by rapid economic development, but also by the effect of some other problems in the electric power industry development in our country, contradiction is mainly coal, power grid construction lag, slow development of new energy, etc.
Biggest gap or < / P> < P> 40 million kilowatts of itu expects 2012 national overall tight power supply and demand, regional, inherent, seasonal power shortage is more prominent, the largest power shortfall of 30 million ~ 40 million kw.
Annual power generation equipment using hours at around 4750, thermal power equipment using the hours between 5300 ~ 5400.
< / P> < P> in terms of power consumption growth, the itu expects 2012 power consumption growth in eight of the whole society.
5% ~ 10.
5%, annual power consumption 5.
14 trillion KWH, former low after high distribution may be present.
< / P> < P> 'predict' also pointed out that the new power 85 million kw in 2012, the new 20 million kw hydropower and thermal power new narrowed to 50 million kw, the end of the whole caliber power capacity reached 11.
About 400 million kilowatts.
< / P> < P> according to the daily economic news 'reporter understanding, in 2011, the water and electricity output drop, coal supplies, power grid structure imbalance, factors such as economy and power demand is growing rapidly, the country a total of 24 successive provincial power grid power shortage, the largest power more than 30 million kilowatts.
< / P> < P> more notable is that spanned across the province transmission capacity is still inadequate.
'In 2011, the northeast and Inner Mongolia west and northwest areas there are still about 30 million kilowatts of electricity cannot be transported to east China, central China, such as electricity shortage region, due to lack of electricity and electric coexist.
'In the itu a researcher told reporters.
< / P> < P> haitong securities analysis, unbalanced regional distribution, and still faces domestic power grid power plant cause localized power shortage problem, solve the problem will mainly rely on ehv and uhv long distance transmission.
Plan according to the national grid company, state grid corporation in 2012 will be completed investment in fixed assets of 336. 2 billion yuan, including grid investment 309. 7 billion yuan, the key construction of ultra-high voltage and power distribution network, and solve the uhv and distribution network plan 2012 'two weak' problem.
< / P> < P> the itu calls for advance and development < / P> < P> statistics show that the power of the investment in 2011, the thermal power investment is only 46, 2005.
Reduce 4%, have 6 years in a row from a year earlier, the thermal power investment accounts for the proportion of power investment in 2011 fell to 28.
Many in the industry are pointed out, reduced power investment will add to our country's electricity supply tensions.
< / P> < P> to this, the itu, must insist on coal power simultaneously, increase the proportion of transmission, promote the development of power advance.
< / P> < P> in the itu researchers, said: 'in view of the power supply tense situation, to accelerate the western, northern large coal base scale, intensive development, application of high pressure, large capacity, advanced dc transmission technology to transfer power to the load center of Middle East, relieve the contradictions of railway, highway coal capacity shortage, achieve greater scope of optimal allocation of energy resources.
'< / P> < P> according to our country about the energy conservation and emissions reduction plan, improve the renewable energy is the development trend, at the same time in the thermal power investment falling, non-fossil energy consumption ratio will continue to increase.
According to China's renewable energy 'twelfth five-year' plan, by 2015, the domestic wind power will reach 100 million kilowatts, generating 190 billion kilowatt-hours, solar power will reach 15 million kilowatts, generating 20 billion kilowatt-hours, and biomass energy and nuclear energy, the amount of fossil fuels by 2015 will reach 4.
800 million tons of standard coal.
< / P> < P> however, the itu, points out that the large scale development of new energy power generation in the power structure adjustment and contribute to energy saving and emission reduction at the same time, also cause great influence to the power balance between supply and demand.
New energy sources such as wind power, solar energy density low, power generation using fewer hours, hard to match the stable demand.
< / P> < P> it is known that in our country, wind power has strong randomness, intermittent and controllability, solar power generation with similar characteristics, in order to ensure the system security and stable power supply, new energy sources such as wind power and solar energy power generation is generally not included in the monthly and annual power balance, not a substitute for conventional power supply.
Brokers, analysts say, is still exist such as wind power, photovoltaic (pv) grid and so on a series of problems, new energy installed capacity is increasing rapidly, but the actual output is small, can't meet the increasing demand.
If long-term cannot solve this contradiction, it is bound to cause great power in the end of the 12th five-year gap.
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